In March, Ukraine’s tax revenues surpassed their target by $1B.

According to Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko, this figure was made possible by a better-than-expected electricity supply during the winter, which enabled businesses to operate more consistently and pay more taxes.

“This enables us to consider the gradual reduction of our dependence on international aid. However, this process will be slow, as we need to balance the 2026 budget in line with the commitments made with the IMF,” Marchenko emphasized.

As well, a reduction in military spending is not anticipated, despite cautious discussions about a potential end to hostilities.

The National Bank also predicts that external financial assistance will decline in the upcoming years, yet it will suffice for emission-free budget deficit financing and for maintaining stability in the foreign exchange market. This year, Ukraine is expected to receive substantial support through aid tranches provided through the ERA mechanism.

“These funds will also be adequate to establish a reserve for state finances for the following year,” the NBU remarked.

Furthermore, they will help boost international reserves to $58B in 2025.