In 2025, Ukraine risks losing 50% of its aid from foreign partners.

According to the Kiel Institute of World Economy, “Ukraine is going through uncertain times regarding further support from Western allies. A Donald Trump US presidency or the use of new lending schemes, such as using frozen Russian assets or NATO contributions to replace European aid, could seriously undermine Ukraine”.

In the summer of this year, aid contributions increased compared to the spring, mainly thanks to macro-financing intended to stabilize the country’s economy. Ukraine received about €14.6B in aid during July and August. If Ukraine’s Western partners maintain their current efforts, total aid next year will exceed €100B, of which almost €59B will be military aid and €54B financial.

However, without new US aid packages, military aid could drop to around €34B and financial aid to €46B. If European donors also cut back, military aid could drop to €29B and financial aid to €27B. Thus, total aid may fall by 50% – to approximately €55B, which will be critical to sustaining Ukraine’s economy and military operations.