If the transit of Russian gas to the EU through Sudzha stops, who will lose more?

Every year, Russia earns about $11B from exporting oil and gas through Ukraine, even though Ukraine itself earns only $1B, said ex-director of the Ukrainian GTS Operator, Serhiy Makogon. The energy transit capacity through Sudzha is about $6B in oil supplies and about $5B in gas. Because of the active hostilities in the Kursk region, there are some risks of gas transit through the hub stopping:

• The first is the military. The territory of Sudzha is riddled with gas tunnels, and if Russia starts using heavy artillery and aerial bombs, the risks of infrastructure damage are very high.
• The second is commercial. It concerns the loss of gas accounting. No one will deliver gas through Ukraine without accounting because it becomes smuggling, the expert explained.

“I don’t see big risks for Ukraine and Europe if transit stops. Ukraine has not imported gas from the Russian Federation since 2015 and has been preparing to work without transit since 2019. And the EU receives only 4% of its gas imports through Ukraine,” Makogon noted.