How will US tariffs affect Ukrainian exporters?

Deputy Minister of Economy Taras Kachka said: “The US is projected to receive $870M in Ukrainian exports in 2024, which is an increase compared to 2023. About 41% of our exports to the US last year consisted of cast iron.”

Kachka does not rule out the possibility that Ukraine could export more cast iron if US steel production rises in response to the tariffs that have been imposed. He explained that the codes included in the steel proclamation, which came into effect on March 12, are subject to a 25% tariff for domestic metallurgists and are not subject to the additional 10% tariff introduced in April.

Ukraine also supplies sunflower oil and honey to the US. Last year, sunflower oil exports totaled $40M and honey exports were $20M, accounting for 16% of total honey exports. The official believes that due to the increased duties on palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, Ukrainian sunflower oil may see additional demand in the US market. As well, the US has placed higher tariffs on China, the world’s largest honey supplier, than those applied to Ukraine.

However, it is expected that small and medium-sized businesses, as well as Ukrainian pipe manufacturers, may be the most affected by the duties.