How many Ukrainian refugees remain abroad, and how could this affect Ukraine’s economy?

As of the end of January 2024, 4.9 million Ukrainians were living abroad due to the war. Most refugees are women (the largest share is women aged 35-44 – 13%) and children.

The largest shares of Ukrainian refugees in Europe are in Germany (30%) and Poland (22%). Outside the countries of Europe, the largest countries in terms of the number of Ukrainians accepted since the beginning of the full-scale invasion are the US (280,000 people), Britain (253,200), and Canada (210,200).

According to the Center for Economic Strategy assessment, 1.4 million to 2.3 million Ukrainians may not return to Ukraine.

“Economic losses from the non-return of refugees will include reduced consumption in Ukraine and reduced production,” the CEC notes.

The estimate of the Ukrainian economy’s total losses from the non-return of refugees under an optimistic scenario is predicted at 3.9% of the pre-war GDP and under a pessimistic scenario at 6.31%.