How has the war affected the profitability of agricultural production in Ukraine?

According to the Ministry of Agricultural Policy, since July 2023 the profitability of the main crop types has been steadily improving. However, grain production has not yet broken even, and the profitability of oil crops remains minimal. According to an updated forecast, in 2024 oil crop profitability will be higher than previously forecasted, but cereal production will continue to be unprofitable.

Compared with the previous period, the increase in profitability relates to the restoration of export sea routes. A higher level of crop profitability is expected in 2024 compared to the previous forecast. Sunflower profitability is expected at $45 per ton, soybeans at $83 per ton, and rapeseed at $78 per ton.

The situation in the livestock sector in 2024 has been generally stable: most types of production remain profitable, except for beef production. In April, a decrease in the profitability of all types of products, except for poultry, was observed due to an increase in barley and corn prices, a seasonal decrease in milk prices, and a decrease in pork prices.