German intelligence suggests that Russia could attack NATO sooner than anticipated if the war in Ukraine concludes quickly.

Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, stated that Russia’s assault on Europe hinges on how developments unfold in the Ukraine conflict.

“A swift resolution to the war in Ukraine would enable the Russians to allocate their energy where they truly desire, specifically against Europe,” he asserts.

As the intelligence chief elaborated, if the fighting ceases by 2029-2030, Russia will be able to redirect its resources ahead of expectations and focus on posing a threat to Europe. He believes Moscow aims to recreate the type of world order that existed in Europe during the late 1990s – without American troops on the continent and with an expanded Russian sphere of influence in the West. Additionally, Russia intends to test the West’s unity, particularly regarding the implementation of Article 5 concerning NATO’s collective defense.

Kahl expresses hope that Moscow’s plans won’t materialize, but he acknowledges that this possibility cannot be dismissed. He states that further actions by the Russian Federation will depend on when the war in Ukraine ends.