Gas for industry: What are the prospects for the domestic market?

Due to Russian missile attacks on gas production infrastructure, Ukraine has lost up to 40% of its domestic production. Therefore, to ensure a sufficient supply of gas before the heating season, it will be necessary to import 4-5.5 billion cubic meters. The cost of gas imports this year will reach $2.9B. Gas prices in Ukraine in May hit ₴23,000 per 1,000 cubic meters (including VAT) – the highest level since February 2023.

In 2021, natural gas consumption by industry was 8.5 billion cubic meters, about 600 million cubic meters less than in 2020. At the start of Russia’s full-scale aggression, many industrial enterprises stopped or significantly reduced their production, mainly due to damage or destruction of assets from shelling, and some were lost due to occupation of territories. Gas consumption by industry has dropped by 60% compared to 2022.

Currently, there are no signs of a significant increase in gas demand from industrial enterprises, mainly due to rising gas prices, energy efficiency measures, and weak economic growth. The price situation in the domestic gas market will likely remain unfavorable for industrial consumers.