Europe may need to spend up to $350B if American aid to Ukraine is cut off.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), in the event of a total cancellation of American military assistance to Ukraine, European nations would have to allocate an additional $100B to $350B to support Ukraine’s military and enhance their own military-industrial capabilities. The primary issue in this context is Europe’s limited defense production capacity. Even with the political will to fully compensate for the loss of American aid, Europeans lack sufficient industrial capacity to produce the volume of weapons that the Americans have provided to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, analysts note.

Nevertheless, the situation is not as dire as it may initially appear. Since the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion, Americans have delivered a total of $60B in military aid to Ukraine, while European nations have contributed €40B. Thus, the disparity is not catastrophic, although Europeans still need to significantly bolster their military-industrial complex.

However, even in the most optimistic scenario, where US assistance continues and the war swiftly concludes with a truce, Europe will still need to ramp up its own weapons production.