EU countries will only be able to spend around €500B on defense over the next five years, rather than the desired €800B.

According to Fitch Ratings, the EU is contemplating a significant increase in defense spending as the United States, which ensured Europe’s security post-World War II, has shown reluctance to continue in this role.

Experts indicated, “This is a substantial challenge at a time when some of the largest member states are grappling with high levels of debt and deficits.”

They suggest that €500B is feasible for the next four to five years. Fitch further noted that nations further from Russia may feel a reduced necessity to increase their defense budgets.

The agency forecasts that long-term defense spending will hit 3.3% of GDP in Germany and France. Conversely, in Italy and Spain, defense spending is projected to only reach 2% of GDP. Overall, by 2028 defense spending in Europe is expected to remain between 2.5% and 2.6% of GDP, which still falls short of NATO’s goal of exceeding 3%.