Electricity prices in Ukraine will stay high until 2030.

Former Ukrenergo head Volodymyr Kudrytskyi predicts that Ukraine’s energy market won’t be fully saturated until then. Saturation isn’t just about avoiding shortages; it also involves filling the export capacity. He states that currently the Ukrainian power system doesn’t produce enough electricity domestically to allow it to compete in export markets. Until that happens, prices will stay elevated.

One may recall that in early July, the maximum capacity for electricity exports from Ukraine and Moldova to EU countries was raised from 650 to 900 MW. This change will help balance Ukraine’s power system without needing to limit production. At the same time, Ukraine only exports electricity when there is a capacity surplus.

In June, Ukraine increased its electricity exports by 150% compared to May, reaching over 237,000 MWh, marking its first time as a net electricity exporter since October 2023. Export volumes returned to levels seen in autumn 2022, before Russia’s full-scale attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure began.