Due to war and drought, world grain reserves will be reduced to a 10-year low.
Despite the resumption of exports from Ukraine, there may still be a global grain shortage. This possibility results from smaller shipments from Ukraine and decreased harvests from other large producers due to weather conditions, writes Reuters. According to the International Grains Council, by the end of the 2022/23 marketing year, global corn stocks will only be sufficient for 80 days of supply, down 28% from five years ago. This would be the lowest level since the 2010/11 marketing year. EU grain production is expected to hit a 15-year low. This decrease will push the block to increase imports from Ukraine in the 2022/23 marketing year by approximately 30%. According to official estimates, Ukraine will harvest 25 to 27 million tons of corn in 2022 against 42.1 million tons in 2021. The diminished export of agricultural products from Ukraine this year, which represents only a portion of the pre-war level, and the risk of further supplies ceasing at any moment represents further risk to global food security.