Despite record spending on the war, the Russian military-industrial complex will gradually decline.

Experts from the British think tank Chatham House noted that the Russian Federation is spending unprecedented amounts on its war against Ukraine, but as a result of sanctions imposed by the West, it is losing the ability to modernize its army. Russia plans to spend 6.3% of its GDP on the war this year, the highest military expenditure since the Cold War.

However, at the same time, the process of technological degradation of the Russian military-industrial complex is ongoing. Because sanctions restrict access to critically important military and dual use imports, Russia is forced to replace modern components in its weapons with inferior alternatives.

Military analysts note that “the Russian Federation will probably have to simplify and slow its military production down, come to terms with a decrease in product quality and a certain level of ‘innovation stagnation’ in its research and development”.

This suggests that in the short term, Russian military factories will produce equipment that poses a “real threat” to Ukraine and Europe. But over time, Russia’s ability to compete with advanced military powers will diminish. Meanwhile, Russia is already experiencing the massive economic impact of excessive military spending.