Despite production restrictions, the global oil market will face a daily surplus of one million barrels next year.

This will happen even if the OPEC+ oil cartel decides to maintain current production restrictions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports. China is one of the key reasons for the expected surplus because its oil demand has fallen for six straight months, and in the third quarter of 2024 consumption was 270,000 barrels per day lower than a year ago.

Other factors include a significant increase in supply from non-OPEC+ countries (US, Canada, Argentina) by 1.5 million barrels per day, the completion of the post-pandemic demand recovery, and the rapid adoption of clean energy technologies.

This year, global demand will increase by only 920,000 barrels per day, and in 2025, almost one million more. Oil prices are predicted to fall to $40 per barrel in 2025 if OPEC cancels voluntary production cuts. Currently, Brent is trading at $72 per barrel, while WTI is trading at around $68 per barrel.