Concorde Capital’s Alexander Paraschiy writes: “Groysman’s announcement indicates he’s well aware of the risks posed by failing to secure the IMF tranche this month and he wants nothing to do with the potentially dire consequences.

Concorde Capital’s Alexander Paraschiy writes: “Groysman’s announcement indicates he’s well aware of the risks posed by failing to secure the IMF tranche this month and he wants nothing to do with the potentially dire consequences. He knows that no IMF tranche will also mean no loans from the EU and the World Bank in 2019. That also means Ukraine’s international reserves will fall below the level of three months of future imports no later than 1Q19. That will also heighten risks for the Ukrainian currency, prompt an unavoidable downgrade of Ukraine’s credit rating and raise the sovereign debt risk. … Taking into account that most, if not all of the top decision-makers are well aware of the risks for Ukraine from such failure, we remain optimistic about the IMF deal in late June or mid-July at the very latest.”