Biden’s most recent sanctions will significantly impact Russian exports, and Trump has extended them for another year.

According to the Central Bank, the US sanctions targeting the Russian oil and gas sector, along with the shadow fleet, introduced on January 10 are expected to cost Russia roughly 1% of its total exports. These restrictions have led to a reduction in the 2025 physical export growth forecast by one percentage point, a change linked to the tightening of sanctions on specific commodity markets. Although the sanctions will diminish oil and gas supply volumes, total exports are still projected to increase from $417B in 2024 to $419B.

However, the Central Bank’s risk scenario anticipates less positive outcomes: If sanctions intensify and a global crisis unfolds, Russia’s exports could decline by 8-10% in 2025 and another 3-5% in 2026. In monetary terms, this would amount to a 33% decrease to $278B, followed by an additional 14% drop in 2026, bringing exports down to $240B.

Moreover, on February 27 Donald Trump extended the US’ sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 after its invasion of Crimea. Such conditions may trigger a new wave of economic recession, a devaluation of the ruble, and an inflation spike in Russia.