Although its economy is very vulnerable, Moscow has no financial incentive to stop the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin may reconsider his position on continuing the war against Ukraine if the West can squeeze Russian oil revenues, according to a Reuters study.

Despite the sanctions and restrictions, Russia had a positive trade balance of $51B last year. The situation may change if Ukraine’s allies can reduce Russia’s export earnings to the extent that it would lead to a deficit in the balance of payments. Exports could fall by $80B.

However, the Russian Federation may refuse to sell oil at even lower prices and limit production. This will lead to an increase in global prices, which will hurt India and Ukraine’s allies, who are unwilling to take necessary risks to reduce Russian revenue streams. Until they do, has no financial pressure to end the war.

However, The Hill notes that the Russian economy is not that strong, and the country is very financially vulnerable if energy prices fall or an increase in the production of military equipment leads to a reduction in production in other areas.