The Russian “summer offensive,” launched in May, is already losing momentum.

Despite numerous attacks across nearly the entire front line, the aggressor forces have not made significant breakthroughs. Moscow set a new record for the number of offensive operations in June, but even with increased fighting intensity, the lack of progress in key areas indicates the depletion of Russian offensive capabilities.

In the east, especially between Pokrovsk and Konstantynivka, Russian forces have made some gains but have not changed the overall operational situation. Already, the pace of advance is slowing, suggesting a loss of initiative. According to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyy, Ukrainian forces have stopped the Russian offensive in the Sumy region.

ISW experts observed that the Russian summer campaign is more a continuation of the spring effort, without new strategic aims, as the attacker lacks the resources for deep breakthroughs. The dispersion of Russian forces from Kharkiv to the Dnipropetrovsk region diminishes the offensive’s effectiveness. Despite its numerical superiority, Russia is unable to concentrate forces in critical areas. Consequently, doubt is increasing about the Kremlin’s ability to achieve its strategic goals.