Putin is not interested in peace yet because he wants to seize four regions of Ukraine by the end of the year.

Russian dictator Putin is convinced that his troops will break through Ukrainian defenses and take full control of four Ukrainian regions by the year’s end. According to Bloomberg, his confidence suggests he is unlikely to make any significant concessions. Thus, US attempts to impose a ceasefire on the parties have been unsuccessful, but appear to be reaching a climax. In Europe, it is uncertain whether Trump will increase pressure on Russia or simply shift focus to other issues. However, according to European officials, Russian troops lack the capabilities to fulfill the dictator’s goals, given their substantial losses.

“At the moment, such a scenario seems extremely unlikely,” the IISS believes.

The risk for Putin is that he will overestimate his capabilities and prompt Trump to carry out the threat of imposing additional sanctions. But the ISW noted that the Kremlin is not preparing the information space for a peace agreement or an end to the war with Ukraine. Instead, the Kremlin is seeking to garner public support for prolonging the war until Russia achieves its objectives.

As evidence, on May 15 Putin extended the Russian Federation’s “defense plan” for two years (until 2027).