The EU and Ukraine are exploring ways to secure reparations from Russia.

Rebuilding Ukraine after the Russian-instigated war will be costly, with current estimates around £400B. As part of a peace deal advocated by US President Donald Trump, £225B ($300B) of Russian state assets frozen abroad could be allocated for this purpose, according to political scientist Mark Galeotti.

“Moscow will ostentatiously spit and scream, but in reality, it will view this as a means of paying reparations with money it will never recover,” remarked one European diplomat.

Analysts also emphasize that any possibility of reclaiming Russian-occupied territories and undermining Putin’s authoritarian regime will rely on developing a successful and stable Ukraine in the long term. The fear of new aggression from Russia will persist, but Kyiv will adopt a “hedgehog strategy”: It will make itself so prickly that Moscow will think twice before resuming hostilities.

Moreover, the NBU believes that confiscating Russian assets will not significantly impact the euro’s role in the world.

However, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that Russia’s frozen assets alone will not be sufficient to restore Ukraine. Therefore, additional funding sources must be sought.