Goldman Sachs has estimated the probability of a peace agreement in Ukraine to be 70%, but the ZNPP may be a problem.

American investment bank Goldman Sachs stated that bond prices suggest that the markets have assessed a 70% probability of a peace deal in Ukraine. This current estimate is notably higher than the figure before US President Donald Trump’s election in November 2024, when it was below 50%. However, it is slightly lower than the peak of 76% recorded in February.

However, the Washington Post points out that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Europe’s largest, is likely to be a key stumbling block in peace talks. The ZNPP symbolized Ukraine’s energy independence and, by extension, its economic independence, generating 20% of the country’s electricity, which was sufficient to meet domestic needs and enable exports to Europe.

Currently, the occupied nuclear power plant is not operational, as the Russians have converted it into a military base. A permanent Russian occupation of the facility represents the worst-case scenario for Ukraine, as it would continue to diminish the energy potential that the plant once provided while also posing a persistent threat to nearby communities.