The international order is shifting dramatically under Trump – what does it mean for Ukraine?

Ukraine Business Network (UBN Network) and Ukraine Business News (UBN) held a live event titled “War & Investments” in Kyiv on March 14. The main topic of discussion was Ukraine’s outlook amid the rapidly evolving geopolitical developments of the past few weeks. As ceasefire talks continue, Trump’s position remains unclear, Europe is facing a security crisis, and Putin’s demands are still maximalist. What does this all mean for Ukraine and its ability to defend itself?

This and many other important issues were discussed at the War & Investment conference sponsored by Piraeus Bank in Ukraine and organized by UBN Network’s Andrew Pryma, MBA, and Mark McNamee. With 150 guests in attendance, the event brought together government officials, renowned geopolitical experts, top executives of both Ukrainian and Western businesses, and diplomats from foreign embassies, among others.

At the start, Mark McNamee presented our Geopolitical Outlook for Ukraine, including cautiously optimistic scenarios for the war. The live polling during the presentation showed that ~80% of the audience believe Trump will continue to provide Ukraine with aid, a similar level as 3 months ago.

UBN Network’s first-panel discussion focused on the ongoing ceasefire talks and featured:

🎤 Peter Dickinson, Editor of Atlantic Council and Founder of Business Ukraine magazine

🎤 Oleksandr Merezhko, Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs

🎤 Arsen Zhumadilov, Head of the Defense Procurement Agency for Ukraine

The panelists noted their shared belief that Trump is unlikely to withdraw support from Ukraine and side with Putin, while also confident Europe would provide the required support to Ukraine. The rapid advances in drone technology and the importance of supply chain was also noted.

Dickinson and Merezhko provided their rather optimistic outlook on how these talks proceed, noting their shared belief that Trump is unlikely to withdraw support from Ukraine and side with Putin. Likewise, they both feel confident Europe has become serious about taking care of its own security and this will mean high-levels of military support to Ukraine in the near future. Longer term, questions remain as to the unresolved details of security guarantees and which countries can/will put boots on the ground.

Zhumadilov shared interesting insights into Ukraine’s domestic defense production, with a particular focus on the rapid advances in drone technology. Critically, Ukraine with greater support from Europe will be capable of producing some 7 million drones this year, a massive increase on 1.5 million produced in 2024. Fundamentally, the government’s job will be to ensure a strong supply chain and adequate number of drone operators for the most effective and efficient use of drones on the battlefield.

The UBN Network second panel discussion focused on how businesses are operating amid such volatility, and featured:

🎤 Igor Mazepa, Founder of Concorde Capital

🎤 Dmytro Ponomarenko, Chief of Strategy of Vodafone

🎤 Alena Sumina, Head of Legal Department at UkraineInvest

The panelists discussed the numerous opportunistic sectors in the local economy, various incentive programs the government offers to businesses, and the high-risk vs. high-reward calculation investors manage here. The much-discussed minerals deal was also a focus.

Igor Mazepa shared his views on the current investment environment in Ukraine and how Ukrainian businesses have adapted to wartime conditions. He highlighted that these businesses continue to operate and invest in the local market, while foreign companies hesitate to enter due to several concerns, including a lack of information, poor understanding of the Ukrainian market, and fear of the war.

Dmytro Ponomarenko revealed Vodafone’s strategy for further expansion in the Ukrainian market despite ongoing hostilities and how the company continues investing in telecommunication systems across the country. Despite the full-scale Russian invasion, as of the end of 2024, the company is still increasing its customer base and has invested UAH 12.66B ($320M), including UAH 5.66B in 2023, which is 58% more than in 2022.

The UkraineInvest team has outlined how the Ukrainian government supports foreign companies in entering the market, adapting, finding local partners, and successfully conducting business by providing all the necessary tools. Among the assistance that UkraineInvest offers are tax breaks, help with purchasing land, legal support, and exemptions from VAT on imported equipment.

The War & Investments live event filled the room with business executives, business owners, and top managers of local and international companies who actively asked questions and held an insightful panel discussion with UBN Network speakers.