What risks does the US face in halting the supply of weapons to Ukraine?

Most of the funding allocated to Ukraine has remained in the US through orders placed in its defense industry, so President Donald Trump’s decision will result in:

1. Financial losses for defense companies. Firms such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, and BAE Systems have obtained significant profit from supplying weapons to Ukraine.
2. Reduced exports and a deterioration in the US’s position in the arms market. Ukraine has become a testing ground for American weapons, enhancing its appeal to other buyers. NATO countries and US partners are actively purchasing American equipment, but if the US halts support for Ukraine, these allies may start to consider alternative supply options.
3. Job losses. Aid to Ukraine supports tens of thousands of American jobs in the defense sector, which in turn stimulates the growth of related industries such as metallurgy, electronics, and transport logistics. Terminating these orders will lead to job losses that will impact the economies in Texas, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
4. Loss of long-term Pentagon contracts. The US Department of Defense finances the production of weapons for Ukraine through a mechanism for replenishing its own stocks. Cutting off aid means losing multi-year contracts, including those that are refreshing and updating the US arsenal. This could slow the modernization of the armed forces, posing a strategic risk for the country.
5. Geopolitical consequences and weakening of the US’s global position. Ceasing military aid to Ukraine could strengthen Russia and increase US spending on the defense of its NATO allies; it may also embolden China to act more aggressively with regard to Taiwan.