Trump may use sanctions to finish off Moscow, which is running out of money for the National Welfare Fund.

German energy analyst Tom O’Donnell said that the latest US sanctions could significantly harm Moscow, and that generally, sanctions against Russian oil could become a key weapon for US President-elect Donald Trump to use as a lever to put pressure on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Russia’s oil tankers that are currently stuck at sea, barred from entering ports, demonstrate the greater effectiveness of the latest sanctions compared to earlier restrictions placed on the price of oil.

According to O’Donnell, Trump wants to put pressure on Putin to reach an agreement to end the war, so he may also impose sanctions on the export of oil products from Russia, especially from terminals in the West.

Meanwhile, by the end of this year the Russian National Welfare Fund will run out of liquid funds. As of December 1 2024, reserves amounted to $53.8B, while at the beginning of the war they amounted to about $150B. Russia uses the Welfare Fund to meet its spending obligations and cover its budget deficit, which in 2025 will amount to ₽1.2T (over $11.6B).