Despite the shadow fleet, Russia is losing revenue from a key source of financing for its war in Ukraine.

Russia’s oil export revenues fell by $1.1B to $14.6B in November 2024 due to lower oil prices and export volumes, according to a study by the KSE. In November, Russian crude oil exports by sea fell by 4.2%.

During the month, all Russia’s exports from Pacific and Arctic ports relied entirely on the shadow fleet. The 196 shadow tankers that left Russian ports provided 90% of crude oil exports and 36% of petroleum product shipments, allowing Moscow to bypass the $60 per barrel price limit and finance the war in Ukraine.

To circumvent sanctions, Russia regularly changes ship managers, complicating vessel tracking and delaying the process of imposing sanctions. Notably, at least 55 ships of the Russian shadow fleet are owned by Dubai companies (UAE).

According to the KSE, Russian revenues from oil sales under current price restrictions and existing sanctions will reach $141B in 2025 and $135B in 2026.