How much will Ukraine and Russia lose from stopping gas transit?

Stopping Russian gas transit through Ukraine deprives Russia of some income, but the European gas market is not entirely lost for Moscow. In 2024, Gazprom sold gas worth about $6B through Ukraine. Analysts predict that the loss of these supplies will have a minimal impact on the aggressor’s economy: a loss of approximately 0.2-0.3% of GDP. For comparison, Ukraine may lose approximately 0.5% of its GDP in forfeited gas transit payments.

Despite calls for a Russian energy embargo, in 2024 the EU imported 15.5 million tons of Russian LNG, which is the most since 2019. Russia also has other pipeline options for transporting gas that will help compensate for losing the route through Ukraine. Deliveries to China, which has overtaken Europe as the largest market for Russian pipeline gas, are estimated to have reached a record 31 billion cubic meters in 2024 and could rise to 38 billion cubic meters this year. In addition, Gazprom could sell 25 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey and 15 billion cubic meters to Europe through TurkStream in 2025.