Analysts suggest that the war in Ukraine is nearing its end.

Rajan Menon, a scholar at the Saltzman Institute for the Study of War and Peace at Columbia University, believes that the prospects for a peace agreement are now becoming more realistic and that the return of Donald Trump to the post of US president could significantly affect the course of the war. The analyst listed at least four realistic scenarios for the war’s end and Ukraine’s post-war security:

1. Ukraine’s membership in NATO. This remains Kyiv’s primary goal, but reaching a consensus among the Alliance members will be difficult.
2. A coalition of security guarantor states. However, Kyiv will insist on the US’ participation in any such agreement, which is unlikely under Trump’s policies.
3. Armed neutrality. This option involves Russia committing not to attack Ukraine, and Ukraine, in turn, refusing to join NATO and allow foreign troops to be stationed in the country. This may be the most realistic compromise, but also leaves Ukraine the most vulnerable. Ukraine should insist on maintaining a strong army and the right to purchase necessary weapons.
4. European leadership. This means some European countries are considering the possibility of deploying their troops in post-war Ukraine.