How will the hryvnia exchange rate change against the dollar in 2025?

The dollar exchange rate will grow moderately during 2025, the ICU investment company predicts. It is noted that the hryvnia exchange rate now depends entirely on the NBU’s vision of its optimal level. Market factors have a minimal impact on exchange rate formation. The exchange rate is influenced by two factors: the NBU’s desire to support the hryvnia and the sufficiency of resources to accomplish this.

Analysts note that the sufficiency of resources is provided by financial assistance from partners, which will be enough for the NBU to carry out interventions in the necessary volumes in 2025 as well. Therefore, the hryvnia exchange rate will be determined exclusively by the NBU’s discretion. Experts predict that after inflation begins to slow in the second half of 2025, the NBU may allow a more rapid weakening of the hryvnia.

“In general, we see a devaluation based on the full year results of no more than 10%, and the exchange rate at the end of next December will be slightly lower than ₴46 per $1,” analysts say.