Ukraine might receive less aid from the US after Trump’s inauguration, but Russia is also running out of money.

US President-Elect Donald Trump said that he will try to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine will probably receive less aid after he takes office.

Meanwhile, Russia may lose its primary sources for financing the war. According to a forecast from Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, the oil market may face a decline in prices in the next two years. Brent may fall to $60 (-15% compared to current quotes). This possibility exists because of increased production in the US and spare capacity in Saudi Arabia. Rosneft’s budget for next year includes a price of $45-50 per barrel for Russian Urals, which is 30% less compared to the current price of $63.48.

As well, the Russian government’s foreign exchange reserves are approaching exhaustion: The National Welfare Fund’s liquid assets as of December 1 decreased to $53.8B from around $140B before the full-scale invasion. The fund will allow Russia to survive for several years at oil prices between $55-60, but it will not be enough to address a new large-scale crisis.