The war in Ukraine will force Europe into a new energy crisis.

The war in Ukraine has contributed to a rise in gas prices by about 45% this year. Bloomberg writes that although the price level is still below 2022’s record levels, it is high enough to strain household budgets and increase competitive pressure on producers. Gas stocks in storage are rapidly decreasing this year after frosts increased heating demand.

Although the European Union has reduced its energy dependence on Russia, the loss of one of the last remaining gas supply routes will increase market pressure and lead to a sharp increase in global prices. Europe is already preparing for a possible cessation of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine.

Another unusual sign of pressure on the system is that prices for the summer, when gas should be cheap, are more expensive than next winter. This suggests that energy costs will remain higher for a long time, and the lower the gas storage level following winter, the more difficult it will be to replenish reserves.