Will Trump’s victory hasten the end of the war in Ukraine, and if so, on what terms?
Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he will end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, but he has not clarified how he intends to accomplish this. And it is unlikely that this can be achieved without territorial concessions on Ukraine’s part. However, now Trump’s promise to quickly end the war, even with Ukrainian concessions, may not be the best outcome for Putin, as he has staked everything on this war. In addition, the continuation of the conflict will also prevent him from addressing a transition from Russia’s militarized economy and to a peacetime economy. At the same time, Trump’s desire to exit the expensive war will be restrained by fears that a sudden end of support for Ukraine’s military could provoke its catastrophic defeat. Bloomberg analysts believe: “Most likely, American aid will decrease, which will weaken Ukraine’s combat positions and force Europe to fill any breakthrough created, while not opening the door for an immediate victory for Russia.”