Bankers do not expect a change in the key policy rate by the end of the year, but there are risks.

Ukrainian bankers believe that the Board of the NBU will leave the discount rate at the current level of 13% per annum at a meeting on Thursday.

“However, a return to tightening monetary policy in the event of a further acceleration of inflation cannot be ruled out,” said a top manager at Pravex Bank.

Raiffeisen Bank believes that the current rate is acceptable for the next two revisions this year. However, if the inflation trend significantly exceeds expectations in October, and the current model does not foresee additional risks, the rate may have to be adjusted upwards in December.

OTP Bank believes that a change in the discount rate may not occur before the end of spring 2025. This is provided that it is possible to reverse inflation and ensure exchange rate stability. These expectations are in line with the regulator’s forecast, according to which the accounting rate will not change until the end of the year, after which it will decrease to 12.6% and 12.4% per annum in the first and second quarters of 2025 and to 11.3% by the end of it.