Half of Ukrainian refugees may stay abroad forever – that’s 3.3 million people.

Data from the Center for Economic Strategy shows that, as of January 2024, 52.5% of Ukrainians who had been forced to leave the country due to the war planned to return to Ukraine.

The actual number of those who will remain in other countries may range between 1.3 to 3.3 million people, according to the Demographic Development Strategy of Ukraine until 2040. How many people ultimately decide not return to Ukraine will depend on the war’s duration.

It is worth noting that children and teenagers make up a significant share of refugees, which could lead to severe demographic losses for the country. If this young generation fails to return it will worsen the already difficult demographic situation, negatively affecting the country’s future.

The probable reunification of Ukrainian families after martial law is lifted may also result in a further outflow from Ukraine’s population. Married women who have found employment and housing abroad may motivate their husbands to move. The number of divorces is also expected to increase, which will further reduce the chances of Ukrainian women returning home.