Moscow is preparing two scenarios that would allow continued gas transit to the EU; Ukraine states that on is impossible.

According to analysts, Russia is considering two scenarios for its return to the European gas market. The first involves the launch of the Nord Stream’s surviving thread, with a capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters per year, which would bring Moscow $9.35B in revenue in 2025. The second scenario envisages the continuation of supplies through the Ukrainian GTS under the guise of using non-Russian (Azerbaijani) gas.

Azerbaijan lacks the 14.6 billion cubic meters of available gas to supply the EU market. So, at the border, Russian gas would formally become Azerbaijani, just as Russian oil becomes Hungarian.

Azerbaijan plans to transport 20 billion cubic meters of gas to the EU by the end of 2027. Slovakia intends to purchase this entire volume, though it consumes less than 4.5 billion cubic meters per year. The leaders of these nations are lobbying for the return of Russian gas to the EU market in significant volume.

However, Kyiv states that they have neither an agreement nor any negotiations with Azerbaijan regarding gas transit.