Faced with falling global prices, Ukraine risks losing its share of metallurgical exports.

The situation in the Ukrainian mining segment shows a significant recovery, which began after the sea corridor’s opening last year. However, due to a drop in prices on the global metallurgical market, in the second half of the year Ukraine may lose 16% of its export of pig iron, 13% of the export of semi-finished steel products, 8% of flat rolled products, and 14% of long rolling stock.

These are exports to markets located relatively far from Ukraine. Because of the decrease in product prices, the competitiveness of Ukrainian manufacturers will suffer due to the higher logistics costs associated with the war.

In the first quarter, steel consumption in the EU fell by 3.1%, and a significant increase in demand can be expected no earlier than 2025. In addition, the US’ recession risk has negative consequences for the whole world, particularly for commodity markets. The general trend of recent months and forecasts for the near future indicate that almost all of the largest product types exported by Ukrainian MMC enterprises will experience downward price dynamics until the end of the year.