The NBU’s currency restrictions threaten defaults in the corporate sector and an increase in the cost of loans to the state.

Oleksandr Vodoviz, the top manager of the Metinvest group, noted: “The largest easing package was introduced in May 2024: businesses were allowed to take foreign currency abroad to pay loans and dividends. However, this decision did not allow businesses to grow due to the introduction of limits on transfers at $4M per year. For example, the Metinvest credit portfolio at the end of 2023 was about $2B, 95% of borrowings were made in the West.”

He added that the company must pay $250-300M every year to service its debt.

“The majority of large companies in Ukraine has a similar situation. None of them can receive financing abroad, which, in turn, can lead to a wave of defaults in the corporate sector and an increase in the cost of loans to the state.”

Vodiviz noted that the NBU has tools to control the movement of funds, so the regulator can fine companies that withdraw money other than for debt repayment.