S&P Global Ratings expects that Ukraine will receive the entire volume of international financial assistance in 2024.

In the coming years, support will remain for Ukraine from the international community, but the amount may be lower. The Ukrainian government expects to receive $38B from all donors in 2024, including about $8B in grants from the US. However, domestic political tensions in the US have stalled Congressional approval of military and financial aid to Ukraine this year.

“Our baseline scenario assumes full utilization of these funds this year. However, in the event of a shortfall in funding from the US, we believe that the consequences could be manageable, as the shortfall could be covered, in addition to other sources, by other donors and domestic borrowing,” according to the US credit ratings agency.

However, after 2024, there is a risk that external support for Ukraine may be less due to a busy election schedule in crucial donor countries and the possibility that some governments will consider the cost of providing continued support to Ukraine too high.