How will Poland’s total embargo on Ukrainian farm imports affect Ukraine?

Poland is confidently moving toward a complete, indefinite embargo on Ukrainian food. The NBU reports that exports of food products to Poland last year amounted to $1.8B, or 8% of total food exports. However, Poland is not a key market for most Ukrainian food. In 2023, Ukrainian food exports to Poland decreased by 67% to $1.754B.

Yehor Kiyan, an economic analyst, adds that, generally, Ukraine imports more from Poland than it exports, and exports its agricultural products mainly by sea. Therefore, the loss of the Polish market will not significantly affect grain exports.

However, protests at the border prevent the passage of other goods. Consequently, Ukraine must reduce tensions on the border, even at the cost of grain export restrictions. At the same time, vegetables and fruits may also be restricted.

However, it is possible to establish direct supply lines to final sales markets in the long term, bypassing Poland, which will bring Ukrainian producers more profit and increased competition between Polish and Ukrainian products in the EU, Britain, and the US.