Will Russia’s defense industry be able to ensure the continuation of the war in 2024, and how has Ukrainian air defense damaged Moscow’s capabilities?

According to British intelligence reports for March 1 and 2, Russia’s military-industrial complex cannot fully meet the country’s needs for its war against Ukraine. Still, it will be able to provide an advantage this year.

Russia’s defense industry significantly increased production last year, resulting from an increase in the number of people working in the defense industry to 3.5 million, increased shifts, and expanded production lines. At the same time, the increase in production came through the restoration and modernization of existing stocks and not through new production. Given limited capacity, projectile production will likely peak in the next 12 months.

British intelligence also noted that a week after the loss of its second A-50, Russia stopped its flights to support air operations in Ukraine. This will significantly impair aircrew situational awareness and is a capability gap.

“Russia may try to return previously mothballed A-50 aircraft to service to mitigate this problem”, the intelligence officers suggest.