After joining the EU, agricultural subsidies for Ukraine will reach €70-90B; Orban is afraid that Hungary will be left without EU money.

According to estimates from the Institute of German Economics, the financial consequences of Ukraine’s full membership in the MFF (Multiannual Financial Framework) for 2021-2027 are estimated at approximately €130-€190B, depending on the assumptions made regarding the area of arable land and the population of Ukraine. Of this amount, €70-€90B will be allocated to agricultural subsidies and €50-€90B to cohesion policy.

If Ukraine is admitted to the EU in the next few years, this event will significantly affect the regime of agricultural subsidies. Ukraine will become the largest recipient in the bloc, with 41.1 million hectares of utilized agricultural land, pushing France into second place. It is currently the largest recipient of aid with €65B.

Given this, the Hungarian PM Victor Orban fears that if Ukraine becomes a member of the EU, all Central European aid from the bloc will go to Kyiv.