“The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that economic growth will slow to 3% in 2024 due to the loss of energy infrastructure and an expected electricity deficit of about 5%. In 2025-2026, GDP growth will accelerate to 5.3% and 4.5 %, respectively,” the message reads.
At the same time, the budget deficit forecast remained unchanged – at 20.7% of GDP in 2024. International aid will remain a critical tool to cover this shortfall, which will amount to $37.9B this year. Experts predict a gradual decrease in external financing in 2025 – to $25.1B, and in 2026 – to $12.6B.
At the same time, the NBU believes that many positive factors will help reduce the budget deficit to 13.5% in 2025 and to 7.5% of GDP in 2026. The volume of international reserves will fluctuate between $39–44B during 2024–2026 and will be sufficient to maintain foreign exchange market stability.