Yuriy Butsa, the government commissioner for public debt management, notes that Ukraine issued GDP warrants in 2015. According to the terms, any GDP growth above 3% per year triggers payments to warrant holders, and in May 2025 Ukraine will be required to pay “hundreds of millions of dollars” for 2023’s GDP growth of 5.3%.
In August of this year, Ukraine paid $70.5M to warrant holders, but on August 27, the government introduced a moratorium on further payments. The warrants expire in 2041, and upcoming obligatory payments could seriously slow Ukraine’s post-war recovery.
As a reminder, in 2015 Ukraine’s creditors wrote off 20% of the debt ($3.7B) and gave the Ministry of Finance a four-year deferment. In return, they received bonds with a higher interest rate and $3.2B in GDP warrants that guarantee a percentage of Ukraine’s economic growth for 20 years. Payments are made in dollar equivalent. The agreement was reached in 2019, and the first payments were made in 2021. However, in 2022 it was frozen for two years.