According to an EBRD assessment, for a quick recovery the inflow of foreign capital should reach $50B per year for five years. At the same time, the bank noted that only 29% of economies reached their pre-war level of GDP per capita within five years after the end of hostilities. Most recoveries take much longer.
“For Ukraine to recover within five years, its economy must grow by 14% per year throughout this period. This will increase average GDP to $225B from approximately $150B in 2022 at constant prices“, said the EBRD.
Furthermore, the bank noted the importance of private investment, as the private sector provides much-needed technological expertise, management know-how, and a focus on economic efficiency.
The EBRD notes that it has committed to invest €3B in Ukraine in 2022-2023, supporting the economy, and is ready to play a key role in recovery when circumstances allow.