The Ukrainian economy stands to lose between €3.5B and €4B each year if the EU does not extend trade preferences for Ukraine, which are set to expire on June 6, 2025. The EU’s share of Ukraine’s foreign trade has risen from 30% in 2013 to 56% in 2023.
Experts identify three possible scenarios: extending the benefits, reverting to 2021’s conditions, or finding compromise solutions to ensure stable access for Ukrainian goods to the EU. Additionally, effectively integrating Ukraine into the EU economy could allow Ukraine’s GDP to double in a decade.
A $90B investment in the construction of 570 factories in Ukraine would result in a 152.8% increase in the output of goods and services, particularly with the processing industry, which would see its output rise by 168.9%. The processing industry’s share of GDP would be expected to increase from 7.6% to 20.4%, creating 815,000 jobs. For Ukraine, this represents a pathway to rebuilding and modernizing its economy, while for the EU, it offers an opportunity to strengthen its position on the international stage.