The World Bank, in its updated review of the global economy, improved its estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023 to 4.8% and predicted a slowdown in recovery to 3.2% in 2024. In 2025, growth, according to the forecast, will be 6.5%.
“Active hostilities are expected to continue through 2024, while base effects and one-off factors, including crop yields, should ease. A partial resolution of uncertainty in 2025 will support a recovery in exports and a gradual increase in reconstruction investment,” the publication said.
The WB also noted that despite last year’s growth, the real GDP that was achieved is about 30% lower than before the full-scale invasion.
As for the Europe and Central Asia region, the bank predicts that growth will remain below the level observed before the pandemic: 2.4% this year compared to 7.1% in 2021. The overall growth of the world economy in 2024 is expected to be at 2.4%, and in 2025, at 2.7%, the weakest start of a half-decade in 30 years.