The Ministry of Economy notes that, despite all the difficulties caused by the war, the positive dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators are evidence of the economy’s adaptation to wartime conditions and its gradual readjustment.
The ministry’s forecast is based on two scenarios: in the first the war ends in 2024 and in the second the war continues longer. According to experts, in the case of a quick end to the war (in 2024), real GDP growth in 2025 will be faster, at 5%. Experts who believe the war will last longer have a more restrained estimate of growth, at 3.5%.
For 2026-2027, experts assume economic growth within the framework of recovery and reconstruction programs will increase the influence of investment demand.
At the same time, GDP in 2027 will not reach 2021’s level and will be 91% of 2021’s level if the war ends in 2024 and 88% in the scenario of a prolonged war.