The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings notes high uncertainty regarding the scope, results, and consequences of the Russian war in Ukraine.
“If the economy begins to recover, given the damage caused by the war, we do not expect Ukraine’s real GDP to reach pre-war levels until 2027, as previously assumed,” S&P said in a statement.
The agency notes that the restructuring of Ukraine’s debt is taking place against the background of significant economic, external, and fiscal pressure caused by the Russian war. The areas occupied by Russian troops make up about 15% of Ukraine’s territory and represent 8-9% of its pre-war GDP. Almost a third of Ukraine’s population has migrated, and about 15% have left the country.
“Regardless of the duration of hostilities, the risks associated with them are likely to remain for some time,” the agency’s analysts added.
Note that earlier, Fitch Ratings predicted a protracted war between Russia and Ukraine in July. The war was expected to continue into 2025 within its current parameters.