Sustainable economic growth at a high rate is possible only through a steady increase in productivity. European integration can become a driving force for growth, even before Ukraine’s official accession to the EU, as noted in the January Inflation Report from the National Bank of Ukraine.
The NBU considered two scenarios for Ukraine’s development – moderate and favorable, which differ primarily in the completeness of reforms and the speed of European integration. Under a moderate scenario with partial reforms, Ukraine’s GDP per person in 2033 will exceed $10,000. This is 70% less than Romania’s level in 2021. Under a favorable scenario, these indicators will increase to almost $15,500 and more than 100%, respectively. As the NBU explains, convergence with the income levels in EU economies will occur because of real GDP growth and the real exchange rate strengthening.
“Under conditions of slow implementation of reforms within the framework of European integration, Ukraine’s economy can grow by approximately 4% over a decade, while rapid transformation will ensure economic growth at about 7%,” the review states.