The National Bank worsened its 2024 growth forecast for Ukraine’s economy from 3.6% to 3% due to the severe consequences from Russia’s missile attacks on energy infrastructure. The central bank’s estimates coincide with the EBRD’s forecast, which in May also pointed to a slowdown in Ukrainian economic growth to 3% this year for the same reason.
At the same time, the NBU notes that, despite ongoing shelling, Ukraine’s economy continues to recover, and real GDP grew in the first quarter. The key factor contributing to the economy’s growth is the high adaptability displayed by both enterprises and the citizenry to war conditions. The economy is also supported by significant budget expenditures on defense and social expenditures. The maritime corridor continues to operate, allowing Ukrainian businesses to export food and metallurgy products.
The government spent sparingly in the first quarter due to uncertainty over international aid flow, which slowed economic recovery somewhat.
The NBU predicts Ukraine’s economic growth will accelerate to 4-5% in the coming years.