Considering security risks and the difficult situation in the labor market, the NBU has worsened its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 GDP growth from 4.3% to 3.6%. At the same time, the bank predicts the economy’s gradual return to normal operating conditions. Accordingly, in 2026-2027 a moderate acceleration of economic growth is expected – to about 4%. The recovery will be facilitated by investment in energy and production capacities, maintaining a soft fiscal policy, and growing private consumption against increasing household incomes.
The inflation forecast has worsened from 6.9% to 8.4% by the end of the year. However, it is expected to return to the target of 5% in 2026. This will be facilitated by the NBU’s interest rate and exchange rate policy measures, higher yields, an improvement in the energy sector, a decrease in the fiscal deficit, and moderate external price pressure.
In 2025, Ukraine will receive $38.4B in external financing, which should be enough to cover a budget deficit of 19% of the country’s GDP.